Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol fell sharply in February, dropping to the lowest level recorded in at least nine years.
The decline signals a major shift in the country’s fuel supply structure, driven by rising domestic output from the Dangote Refinery and tighter controls on petrol import permits.
Shipping data from Kpler showed that petrol imports into Nigeria fell by more than half in February to about 50,000 barrels per day (bpd).
This marked a steep decline from volumes recorded in previous months and represented a drop of nearly two-thirds compared with the same period last year.
For decades, Nigeria has remained West Africa’s largest petrol importer due to limited domestic refining capacity.
However, the gradual ramp-up of operations at the Dangote refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is beginning to reduce the country’s long-standing reliance on imported supply.
Dangote Refinery lifts domestic production
Domestic petrol production rebounded in 2026 as the Dangote refinery gradually resumed full operations following maintenance earlier in the year.
Dangote Refinery ramped up supply to 36.5 million litres per day in February, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Latest data by the regulator revealed that the refinery supplied 64 percent of the petrol consumed in the period. Nigeria’s petrol consumption stood at 56.9 million litres per day in the month.
In a further move to strengthen local distribution, the refinery recently signed a petrol supply agreement with 12 petroleum product marketers to supply between 60 million and 65 million litres of petrol daily to the Nigerian market.
The drop in imports suggested Nigeria’s fuel supply structure may be entering a new phase, as domestic refining capacity, led by the Dangote refinery, continues to reshape the country’s downstream petroleum sector.
The facility completed a two-week maintenance programme on its crude distillation unit (CDU) in early February. Some supporting units, including the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit and catalytic reformer, continued operating at reduced capacity after maintenance work carried out in January.
Meanwhile, the refinery’s 218,000 bpd Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), a key petrol-producing unit, has ramped up operations to about 90 per cent capacity following scheduled test runs in mid-February. The unit had been offline since December.
Europe remains Nigeria’s main supply source
Despite the overall drop in import volumes, Europe remained Nigeria’s main petrol supply region, accounting for roughly 38,000 bpd of shipments in February.
Nigeria’s share of Europe’s petrol exports, however, declined significantly.
Data indicated that Nigeria accounted for only 4 per cent of Europe’s total gasoline exports during the month, compared with 12 per cent recorded a year earlier.
European petrol shipments to Nigeria were also only marginally higher than deliveries to Ghana, where approximately 34,000 bpd of gasoline arrived from Europe over the same period.
Import permits tighten as local supply expands
Restrictions on petrol import permits also contributed to the sharp fall in fuel arrivals during the month.
Industry sources said regulators slowed the pace of approvals, allowing marketers to rely on existing domestic stock levels, which stood at around 1.27 million tonnes in January.
By late January, only one petrol import permit covering 300,000 tonnes had reportedly been issued to downstream firm MRS Oil Nigeria Plc.
The NMDPRA is believed to be withholding additional approvals as part of efforts to prioritise supply from domestic refiners.
