Violent campaigns by the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have escalated dramatically in Benin Republic, Niger Republic, and Nigeria borderlands, ACLED data has shown.
When analysts compared 2024 and 2025, related fatalities in the border triangle increased by 262 percent.
Parts of Benin, Niger Republic, and Nigeria’s Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states contributed to an 86 percent increase in violent events.
In the Thursday report, Héni Nsaibia, ACLED’s senior analyst for West Africa, said the threats have taken on new dimensions as the militants expand their footprint.
The report noted that the militant groups have devised strategic communications as a means of inter-competition to demonstrate capacity of maintaining presence and influence in the borderlands.
Between June and November 2025, JNIM publicly claimed a series of attacks in Basso, Wara, Nuku, and Karunji along the Benin-Nigeria border.
It was among the group’s first claimed operations inside Nigeria, announcing its presence in an area where its activity had previously been suspected but less overt.
Similarly, in December and February, ISSP began to signal its presence by officially claiming attacks in Goubey and Birni N’Konni in the Niger-Nigeria borderlands.
Prior to the attacks, the group’s activities had been attributed to the Lakurawa militants.
“Limited state presence and weak border control persist after several Sahelian states withdrew from ECOWAS, which led to weakened regional cooperation, bilateral tensions, and limited cross-border coordination,” the report stated.
Recent Us Air Strikes
In December, the United States conducted precision strike operations against two major Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist enclaves in Sokoto with the permission of the Nigerian government.
The ACLED report noted that the US’ decision to strike ISSP inside Nigeria, away from its core areas in the central Sahel, suggested an effort to stop the group from spreading towards coastal West Africa while retaining Washington’s strategic presence in the region.
“A more immediate trigger for the strikes may have been ISSP’s October kidnapping of US citizen, missionary, and civilian pilot, Kevin Rideout, in Niger’s capital, Niamey,” the report said.
Beyond the kidnapping and disrupting ISSP activity, military cooperation between the US and Nigeria offers a practical way to militarily engage the Sahel-based Islamist groups.
This is especially significant given that in the central Sahel — the heart of the region’s jihadist insurgency — countries under the Alliance of Sahelian States have largely pushed out Western forces.
Through cooperation with Nigeria, the US retains regional access, allowing it to monitor and apply pressure on both Sahelian and Nigerian jihadist groups, the report noted.
