By Oludele Olaniyi
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has quietly positioned himself as a contender for Nigeria’s highest political office, setting his sights on the 2027 presidential election. While his ambition has been subtly promoted on social media and among political circles, a more realistic analysis of the political landscape reveals significant hurdles that cast doubt on the viability of his presidential bid.
Makinde’s aspirations have been championed primarily through online platforms, where groups have been created to promote him as Nigeria’s next leader. This digital campaign has garnered attention. For those from Oyo State, this might evoke a sense of pride — seeing their governor being considered for such a prestigious position.
Yet, pride alone cannot bridge the gap between ambition and reality, and Governor Makinde’s presidential dream faces multiple formidable challenges.
The first and perhaps most daunting challenge to Governor Makinde’s presidential ambitions lies in the re-election bid of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a political titan from the same southwestern region. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, boasts an extensive political network and considerable influence, particularly in the southwest, a critical voting bloc in Nigerian elections. Defeating an incumbent president is a near-impossible feat in Nigerian politics, where a combination of financial power, religious affiliations, and ethnic loyalties typically sways elections.
Given these dynamics, the prospect of Makinde successfully challenging Tinubu within the same region appears far-fetched. The governor would have to convince southwest voters that he is a superior alternative. This is no easy task, considering that Tinubu’s political machinery remains robust and firmly entrenched across the region.
Furthermore, with the deep-rooted role of money and power in Nigerian elections, Makinde’s war chest, while substantial at the state level, pales in comparison to the vast financial resources available to a sitting president.
Makinde’s shortcomings in the 2023 general elections further weaken his case as a viable presidential candidate. Despite being the governor of Oyo State, Makinde could not secure victory for his party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), in any of the state’s senatorial races. All Progressives Congress (APC) also won most of the House of Representatives seats in the state. APC buoyed by its regional dominance and national appeal under Tinubu’s leadership, swept through the southwest, including Oyo State. This defeat raises significant concerns about Makinde’s ability to marshal enough support, even within his home base, to mount a credible national campaign.
The contrast between the 2019 and 2023 elections in Oyo State is stark. In 2019, the PDP made significant gains, and its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, triumphed over Muhammadu Buhari in the state. Fast forward to 2023, and the tide has turned drastically, with APC dominating both the state and national elections. This shift underscores Makinde’s diminished political influence, as he failed to secure electoral victories for his party, casting doubt on his ability to inspire and mobilize voters on a larger national scale.
Another major roadblock to Makinde’s presidential aspirations is his strained relationship with his factionalized party, the PDP. During the 2023 elections, Makinde aligned himself with Tinubu, the then-presidential candidate of the rival APC, instead of supporting Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s candidate. This betrayal left a bitter taste among many within the party’s ranks, isolating Makinde from key figures and reducing his influence within the PDP. His treacherous actions during this period, including his role as one of the five governors who undermined PDP’s chances, have severely weakened his standing within the party. Given these fractures within his party and his lack of a solid support base, Makinde’s ability to navigate the complex web of PDP politics remains highly questionable.
Furthermore, Makinde’s outspoken opposition to the Supreme Court’s ruling on local government autonomy alienated him from many rural Nigerians, who constitute a large percentage of the electorate. His controversial stance on this issue damaged his reputation, particularly among those who viewed the decision as critical to improving governance and resource distribution at the local level.
To mount a successful presidential campaign in Nigeria, candidates need more than ambition and financial resources; they need a strong, well-oiled political structure capable of withstanding the fierce competition and underhanded tactics that characterize Nigerian elections. Currently, Governor Makinde does not possess this kind of political machinery. His base of support is fractured, his party relationships are strained, especially with party elders and his influence, even in Oyo State, has waned.
A credible presidential candidate requires not only national recognition but also a network of political allies, party loyalty, and the ability to inspire confidence in both rural and urban voters. At present, Makinde lacks the necessary political infrastructure to successfully navigate these challenges. Without a solid foundation, his campaign would struggle to gain traction on a national scale.
Though bold, Governor Seyi Makinde’s presidential ambition is ultimately an unrealistic pursuit. The numerous political obstacles in his path — from President Tinubu’s dominant presence in the southwest to his diminished influence in Oyo State, and his alienation within the PDP — make it highly improbable that he will secure the party’s nomination, let alone win a national election.
Without the necessary political infrastructure or widespread support, Makinde’s bid for the presidency appears more like a fleeting fantasy than a credible political move. While his supporters may tout his courage and vision, the realities of Nigeria’s political landscape suggest that his ambitions are unlikely to materialize.
Oludele Olaniyi, an Oke-Ogun indigene in Oyo State, is an architect residing in Lagos
