…Why we reversed Nigeria’s growth projection
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2024 growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy to 2.9%, attributing the downgrade to weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year.
This was revealed in the IMF’s October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), released during the ongoing annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF. The revised forecast represents a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the 3.1% growth forecast projected in the July 2024 WEO.
However, the IMF slightly raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025, projecting a growth rate of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in the July report.
Similarly, the IMF reduced its 2024 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in July. However, it raised the region’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has explained that it downgraded Nigeria’s growth projection due to low outputs in the agricultural and oil sectors.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas disclosed this during the World Economic Outlook press briefing at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington D.C., USA.
He attributed the decline in production in both sectors to specific challenges: flooding affecting agriculture and security concerns hampering oil production.
“We revised Nigeria’s growth down by 0.2 percent because of volatility. The reason for the reversal is due to issues in agriculture caused by flooding, and production issues in the oil sector related to security,” Gourinchas stated.
In June, the IMF revised its growth forecast for Nigeria, lowering it by 0.2 percentage points from 3.3% to 3.1%. This adjustment is reflected in the IMF’s July 2024 World Economic Outlook report.
Declines Comment on Fuel Subsidy Removal Impact
When asked about the impact of Nigeria’s removal of fuel subsidies on citizens, Mr. Gourinchas declined to comment, noting that the relevant data was not immediately available.
Responding to a question from a Nigerian journalist, he said, “I am afraid I’ll have to go back and check as I don’t have the numbers ready on the impact of the removal of the fuel subsidy specifically.”
The removal of the subsidy has caused significant hardship for ordinary Nigerians, but the IMF has yet to publicly comment on its economic impact
